Rental market · Surprise, AZ · Incorporated city
Surprise, AZ: average rent, home values, and rental yield
Mountain · Population 149,519
How Surprise ranks nationally
Each bar places Surprise against all 1,863 ranked U.S. markets: the marker is this city and further right is more favorable to an investor; the tick marks the national median. Inverted measures (crime, vacancy, price-to-income) are already flipped so higher always means better here.
What a deal looks like here
A market-level buy-box for Surprise, built from this market's own numbers: the investor-entry price, its rent, and local carrying costs. An illustrative scenario, not a listing.
At 25% down and 7%, this representative scenario runs negative (about −$564/mo); it reaches cash-flow break-even around 49% down.
Buy target = Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile) $354,094; typical home value $419,342. Rent = Zillow ZORI typical asking rent. Assumptions: 25% down, 7% / 30-yr, 5% vacancy, 8% management, 5% maintenance, 5% capex, 0.5% insurance, 0.46% property tax. Illustrative market-level scenario: not a listing, appraisal, recommendation, or underwriting decision. As of 2026-07-10.
Market Negotiation Leverage
Some buyer leverage (77th percentile among 2,222 cities with Redfin coverage)
Equal-weight composite of three Redfin signals’ national percentiles (days on market 78, months of supply 3.5, sale-to-list 98.6%), direction-adjusted so a higher percentile always means more room for a buyer to negotiate. This is a cross-sectional snapshot against every other tracked city today, not a seasonal or historical baseline for this specific city (no multi-year time series is committed for this data). Not a prediction of what any specific seller will accept. Source: Redfin Data Center. See how this is calculated.
Measured market data
Measured observations for Surprise, shown as context beside the market score (none of it feeds the score), and the model weights are unchanged. These are different measurements from the Census figures in the factor table: the ACS median value is what owners report in a 5-year survey, while ZHVI is a monthly index of typical value; ACS median gross rent is what sitting tenants pay including utilities, while ZORI indexes asking rent on newly listed units. Neither corrects the other. Monthly series, revised in recent months, observed 2026-07, not live.
| Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, mid tier) | $419,342 |
|---|---|
| ZHVI bottom tier (5th–35th pct) | $354,094 |
| ZHVI top tier (65th–95th pct) | $527,230 |
| ZHVI, single-family only | $421,499 |
| Zillow asking-rent index (ZORI) | $1,929/mo |
| Measured gross yield (ZORI × 12 ÷ ZHVI) | 5.52% |
| Market heat index | 51 |
| Median days to pending | 45 |
| Share of listings with a price cut | 32.0% |
| Median sale-to-list ratio | 99.1% |
| For-sale inventory | 1,182 |
| New listings | 289 |
| Median list price | $435,333 |
| Median sale price | $410,000 |
| Measured 3-yr value growth | -1.60%/yr |
| Measured 5-yr value growth | 1.44%/yr |
| Measured 3-yr rent growth | -0.26%/yr |
| Price–rent divergence (value − rent growth) | -1.34%/yr |
| ZHVI, 1-bedroom | $187,520 |
| ZHVI, 2-bedroom | $374,252 |
| ZHVI, 3-bedroom | $391,635 |
| ZHVI, 4-bedroom | $446,816 |
| ZHVI, 5-bedroom | $520,640 |
Source: Zillow Economic Research public research data, observation month 2026-07. Zillow is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Compounding Estates.
Price & rent history
Home value $154,725 → $419,342 (2000-01–2026-07) · Asking rent $993 → $1,929 (2015-01–2026-07)
Source: Zillow ZHVI (home value) and ZORI (asking rent) - monthly resolution for the last ~10 years (since 2016-08), quarterly before that. Home value uses the left axis, rent the right; toggle either series, change the range, hover to read any point. Gaps in the source series are left as gaps - never interpolated.
ZIP markets in Surprise
11 Census ZIP Codes (ZCTAs) officially overlap Surprise by land area · 9 data-eligible for subscores. Overlap is Census land-area share, not a population or address share. Each ZIP Code's overall Rental Investor ZIP Score, grade and canonical national rank are shown below (the two component signals, affordability and rental market, are separate percentiles). There is no city-scoped ZIP rank: city overlap isn't a ranking universe, so only the national rank is shown. These ZIP rankings sit in the ZIP universe only, never mixed with, and not directly comparable to, Surprise's city ranking. Vintage: the Key metric column below is Census ACS 2020–2024 (5-year), a full survey release newer than the ACS 2019–2023 figures used above for Surprise itself, so the same measure can legitimately show a different number at the city and ZIP level.
| ZIP Code | Overallgrade · natl rank | Tier · overlap | Affordabilitysignal · natl rank | Rental marketsignal · natl rank | Key metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85374Surprise | A 69#653 nat | RankedPrimary | 77#1,771 of 20,132 · top 9% | 24#17,916 of 20,132 · bottom 11% | 5.8%Survey yield |
| 85379Surprise | A 77#18 nat | RankedPrimary | 76#1,915 of 20,132 · top 10% | 55#7,670 of 20,132 · top 38% | 5.6%Survey yield |
| 85388Surprise | A 72#227 nat | RankedPrimary | 76#1,949 of 20,132 · top 10% | 29#17,114 of 20,132 · bottom 15% | 5.6%Survey yield |
| 85387Surprise | B 63#2,265 nat | RankedPrimary | 81#1,192 of 20,132 · top 6% | 2#20,070 of 20,132 · bottom 1% | 6.4%Survey yield |
| 85378Surprise | A 65#1,560 nat | RankedPrimary | 85#742 of 20,132 · top 4% | 49#10,088 of 20,132 · bottom 50% | 6.6%Survey yield |
| 85342Surprise | — | ProfilePrimary | — | — | 3.0%Survey yield |
| 85361Surprise | — | ProfilePrimary | — | — | 2.3%Survey yield |
| 85396Buckeye | A 68#972 nat | Ranked8.1% overlap | 69#3,320 of 20,132 · top 16% | 24#17,916 of 20,132 · bottom 11% | 5.6%Survey yield |
| 85355Citrus Park | B 61#2,968 nat | Ranked5.9% overlap | 79#1,389 of 20,132 · top 7% | 5#19,897 of 20,132 · bottom 1% | 6.0%Survey yield |
| 85375Sun City West | B 55#5,649 nat | Ranked1.5% overlap | 72#2,610 of 20,132 · top 13% | 9#19,595 of 20,132 · bottom 3% | 5.3%Survey yield |
| 85383Peoria | A 64#1,902 nat | Ranked0.3% overlap | 59#6,117 of 20,132 · top 30% | 10#19,531 of 20,132 · bottom 3% | 4.3%Survey yield |
The honest read
Surprise scores 63/100 overall (grade A): 66 for Cash Flow, 81 for Growth, and 43 for Stability, each a 0–100 score built from the factors in that category. The scenario above shows what a representative investor-entry purchase pencils out to at today's rates. Everything we can measure is in the table below, with its source.
Every factor, shown
The Overall score blends three category scores built from thirteen measured factors: Cash Flow (35%), Growth (35%), and Stability (30%). The table shows every factor; the tag on each percentile marks which category a scored factor feeds. Untagged factors are shown for context but not scored. Every value carries its source and as-of date. How the score works.
| Factor | Value | National percentile | Source · as-of | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense-adjusted yield | 3.5% | 71st percentile · Cash Flow | Zillow ZORI/ZHVI · 2026-07-31 | Annual rent divided by price, net of a modeled vacancy, tax, capex, and management allowance: the core of the Cash Flow category and what the score is actually computed from. The unadjusted gross yield is shown elsewhere on this page. |
| Price to income | 4.5x | 58th percentile · Cash Flow | Zillow + ACS income · 2026-07-31 | Home price over local median income. Lower is cheaper relative to what people earn. Part of the Cash Flow category. |
| Population growth | 3.2%/yr (observed 3.3%/yr, capped for scoring) | 94th percentile · Growth | Census PEP · Census PEP 2020→2024 (vintage 2024) + Census PEP 2014→2024 (vintages 2019+2024) | Census population trend for the place, capped at 4.5%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate): the heaviest factor in the Growth category. |
| Job growth | 2.7%/yr | 92nd percentile · Growth | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2019→2023 (pre-COVID anchor) + BLS LAUS county annual 2013→2023 | County employment trend, capped at 4.0%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate). A Growth-category factor. |
| Income growth | 7.8%/yr | 88th percentile · Growth | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2019-2023 | Local median-income trend. A Growth-category factor. |
| Rent growth | 3.5%/yr | 35th percentile · Growth | Zillow ZORI · 3yr + 10yr to 2026-07-31 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year rent trend (the model's own weighting). A Growth-category factor. |
| Home-value growth | 3.1%/yr | 16th percentile · Growth | Zillow ZHVI · 3yr + 10yr to 2026-07-31 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year price trend (the model's own weighting). A small Growth-category factor. |
| Unemployment | 3.2% | 63rd percentile · Stability | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2023 | County unemployment rate. Lower is steadier, a Stability-category factor. |
| Rental vacancy | 10.5% | 5th percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25004 · ACS 5-yr 2019-2023 | Share of rentals empty. Lower means more pricing power. A Stability-category factor. |
| Property tax rate | 0.5% | 97th percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25103/B25077 · ACS 5-yr 2019-2023 | Median tax over median value. A direct drag on cash flow, scored in the Stability category as carrying-cost burden. |
| Months of supply | 3.5 mo | 31st percentile · Stability | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Listings over sales pace. Under about 4 is a seller market, over 6 a buyer market. A Stability-category factor. |
| Days on market | 78 days | 7th percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | How fast homes sell. Lower means more liquidity and an easier exit. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98.6% | 33rd percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Sale price over asking. Above 100% means homes clear over ask. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Net domestic migration | -0.4/1k | 56th percentile | Census PEP (county) · PEP vintage 2024 | Net people moving in or out of the county, per 1,000 residents. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Building permits | 24.5/1k | 21st percentile | Census BPS (county) · BPS 2023 | New-construction permits per 1,000 homes. More means more supply coming. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Rent burden | 32% | 36th percentile | Census ACS B25071 · ACS 5-yr 2019-2023 | Median rent as a share of income. Higher means less headroom for increases. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Median year built | 2004 | 96th percentile | Census ACS B25035 · ACS 5-yr 2019-2023 | Age of the housing stock. Older stock carries more capex. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Max drawdown | 57% | 7th percentile | Zillow ZHVI · 2026-07-31 | Worst peak-to-trough home-value decline on record. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Violent crime | not reported | - | FBI CDE | No agency reported this place to the FBI. We never impute a crime number; where it is missing, the Stability category renormalizes over its remaining factors. |
- † Job growth and unemployment are county-level (BLS LAUS, county FIPS 04013); large multi-county cities inherit their dominant county’s figures.
Related cities
Nearby in the Arizona rankings · all Arizona cities
Similar overall grade, elsewhere in the country
Compare Surprise head-to-head
Side by side, the three category scores plus every measured column with sources - the same shown math as this page.
Underwrite a Surprise deal
For learning, not advice. A market screen from public data - not a forecast, not underwriting, not a recommendation to buy anywhere.