Rental market · Atascadero, CA · Incorporated city
Atascadero, CA: average rent, home values, and rental yield
Pacific · Population 29,712
DatasetCity Market Score, model balanced4,812 of 5,233 tracked U.S. markets rankedgenerated 2026-10-06Latest source releases: Zillow ZHVI/ZORI 2026-08 · Census ACS 5-yr 2024 · Census PEP 2025 · Census BPS 2025 · BLS LAUS 2025 · Redfin 2026-05 · FBI CDE 2025How this is built
F28.3
#4,404 of 4,812 ranked markets
Overall Score 28.3 · stronger than 8% of ranked markets
Confidence 94/100 · 1 of 13 factors imputed
On the ranked lists: one of 1,079 most stable markets. List pages show the top 100.
Grade F: the biggest single drag is Cash Flow, 15.4 of 100 at 35% of the score, which is 52% of the distance to a perfect 100. See the arithmetic
Why this market does or does not qualify
Overall City Market Score rank #4,404 of 4,812. It does not enter the Buy & Hold shortlist under the baseline screen. Why rank and cash flow can disagree
Investor-entry estimate$601,270
Modeled rent$2,408/mo
20% down · base cash flow−$1,960/mo
25% down · rent stress to base−$1,940/mo to −$1,760/mo
Hold Coverage · 20% / 25%0.39 / 0.41
Conditional price ceiling · 25%$278,589
Required rent at entry estimate$5,198/mo
Limiting requirementDoes not pass the existing category-quality gate
Price × rent decision grid · 25% down
Change the two inputs that usually decide the deal. Green cells clear the three financial requirements before the separate quality and data gates.
| Monthly cash flow / Hold Coverage | 10% below entry$541,143 | Entry estimate$601,270 | 10% above entry$661,397 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% higher rent$2,649/mo | −$1,210/moHC 0.55 · does not clear | −$1,570/moHC 0.48 · does not clear | −$1,930/moHC 0.41 · does not clear |
| Modeled rent$2,408/mo | −$1,390/moHC 0.48 · does not clear | −$1,760/moHC 0.41 · does not clear | −$2,120/moHC 0.36 · does not clear |
| 10% lower rent$2,167/mo | −$1,580/moHC 0.41 · does not clear | −$1,940/moHC 0.35 · does not clear | −$2,310/moHC 0.30 · does not clear |
Expense waterfall · base case
Monthly, rounded to $10. NOI excludes CapEx and debt service.
- Scheduled rent+$2,410/mo
- Vacancy allowance−$120/mo
- Management−$180/mo
- Maintenance−$120/mo
- Property tax−$370/mo
- Insurance allowance−$250/mo
- NOI+$1,360/mo
- CapEx reserve−$120/mo
- Debt service−$3,000/mo
- Cash flow−$1,760/mo
Base−$1,760/mo · HC 0.41Rent stress−$1,940/mo · rent −10%Insurance-expense stress−$2,260/mo · allowance 1.5%
Two supported strengths
Stability 70/100 and Growth 24/100.
Weakest measured signal
Cash Flow is the weakest category at 15/100.
Primary evidenced risk: price-to-income affordability is the weakest measured factor (6th national percentile). Data caveat: price is Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile); rent is ZORI asking rent and is not bedroom- or property-matched. Insurance is a 0.5% annual allowance, not a quote.
Scenario buy-hold-v1-2026-09-19: 7% fixed financing for 30 years; 20% and 25% down; 5% vacancy; 8% management on collected rent; 5% maintenance and 5% CapEx on scheduled rent; measured local property tax; 3% closing costs. Qualification also requires positive cash flow, Hold Coverage at least 1.10, nonnegative cash flow after 10% lower rent, and the existing quality and data gates.
Property verification checklist
- Confirm achievable rent with bedroom-matched comps, current listings, and any existing lease.
- Use the parcel’s actual tax bill and reassessment rules.
- Obtain a landlord insurance quote, including wind, flood, or named-storm coverage where relevant.
- Inspect roof, structure, mechanicals, deferred maintenance, and immediate capital needs.
- Verify utilities, HOA, licensing, inspection, registration, and local rental rules.
- Replace the modeled loan with a current lender quote, points, closing costs, and reserve requirements.
Why this grade
Overall 28.3 is a weighted geometric mean of the three category scores. Because they are multiplied rather than averaged, their distances from a perfect 100 combine as an exact identity, and each category's share of that distance is the arithmetic below, not an estimate. Cash Flow carries 52% of it, which is what makes it the binding constraint on this grade.
Cash Flow · 35% weight
15.4 / 100
52% of the shortfall
Growth · 35% weight
23.8 / 100
40% of the shortfall
Stability · 30% weight
70 / 100
8% of the shortfall
Inside Cash Flow, the shortfall splits over the factors the model scored here, exactly, in proportion to their published weights. The largest component is expense-adjusted yield (weight 22 of the category's 35, 21st national percentile, 58% of the category's own shortfall); next is price to income (weight 13 of the category's 35, 6th national percentile, 41% of the category's own shortfall).
What this is not. It is not a claim that a different value on any one factor would produce a different score or a different grade. Every factor is scored as a national percentile and the grade is a percentile cut against the other 4,812 ranked markets, so this market's position moves only relative to all of them, never on its own. No factor was dropped for this market. 1 of the 13 factor was imputed (rent growth): the model had no city input of the kind it scores, so it used a reference median instead of a measurement (the same county, or the same state and population band; a national median for a yield cost input), and the factor table marks it as a fallback.
How Atascadero ranks nationally
Each row places Atascadero among all 4,812 ranked U.S. markets: the marker is this city, the centre tick is the national median, and the bar runs from one to the other. Further right is better for an investor; inverted measures (crime, vacancy, price-to-income) are already flipped.
Overall Scorethe flagship rank
28.38th percentile
Cash Flowyield & affordability
1510th percentile
Growthpopulation, jobs, income
248th percentile
Stabilitycrime, vacancy, unemployment
7090th percentile
Expense-adjusted yield1.6% net of costs
2121st percentile
Affordabilityprice-to-income 8.5×
6more affordable than 6%
Violent crime148 /100k/yr
62safer than 62%
Rental vacancy1.6% vacant
94tighter than 94%
Population growth-0.2%/yr (capped)
2323rd percentile
Job growth-0.2%/yr (capped)
1717th percentile
What a deal looks like here
A market-level buy-box for Atascadero, built from this market's own numbers: the investor-entry price, its rent, and local carrying costs. The market grade is a quality screen; the deal verdict below is this financing scenario only. An illustrative scenario, not a listing.
Target buy price
$601,270
Expected rent
$2,408 /mo
Rent-to-price
0.40%
Cap rate
2.7%
Cash-on-cash
-12.5% at 25% dn
NOI-based DSCR
0.45
Hold Coverage
0.41 after CapEx reserve
Does not meet screen. At 25% down, named scenarios span −$1,940 to −$1,760/mo after reserves (10% lower-rent stress to base case). This range is not a confidence interval.
Buy target = Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile) $601,270; typical home value $780,294. Rent = Zillow ZORI typical asking rent. Assumptions: 25% down, 7% / 30-yr, 5% vacancy, 8% management on collected rent, 5% maintenance, 5% CapEx reserve excluded from NOI and subtracted from cash flow, 0.5% insurance, 0.74% property tax. Illustrative market-level scenario: not a listing, appraisal, recommendation, or underwriting decision. Zillow price and rent as of 2026-08-31; dataset generated 2026-10-06.
Market Negotiation Leverage
Balanced (46th percentile among 6,196 cities with Redfin coverage)
Equal-weight composite of three Redfin signals’ national percentiles (days on market 45, months of supply 2.1, sale-to-list 99.4%), direction-adjusted so a higher percentile always means more room for a buyer to negotiate. This is a cross-sectional snapshot against every other tracked city today, not a seasonal or historical baseline for this specific city (no multi-year time series is committed for this data). Not a prediction of what any specific seller will accept. Source: Redfin Data Center. See how this is calculated.
Measured market data
Measured observations for Atascadero, shown as context beside the market score (none of it feeds the score), and the model weights are unchanged. These are different measurements from the Census figures in the factor table: the ACS median value is what owners report in a 5-year survey, while ZHVI is a monthly index of typical value; ACS median gross rent is what sitting tenants pay including utilities, while ZORI indexes asking rent on newly listed units. Neither corrects the other. Monthly series, revised in recent months, observed 2026-07, not live.
21 measured Zillow figurestypical value $787,600 · asking rent $2,410/mo · measured gross yield 3.67% · observed 2026-07Show table
| Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, mid tier) | $787,600 |
|---|---|
| ZHVI bottom tier (5th–35th pct) | $606,785 |
| ZHVI top tier (65th–95th pct) | $1,050,524 |
| ZHVI, single-family only | $812,517 |
| Zillow asking-rent index (ZORI) | $2,410/mo |
| Measured gross yield (ZORI × 12 ÷ ZHVI) | 3.67% |
| Market heat index | 51 |
| Median days to pending | 25 |
| Share of listings with a price cut | 28.0% |
| Median sale-to-list ratio | 99.8% |
| For-sale inventory | 87 |
| New listings | 27 |
| Median list price | $857,967 |
| Median sale price | $850,000 |
| Measured 3-yr value growth | 2.94%/yr |
| Measured 5-yr value growth | 4.25%/yr |
| ZHVI, 1-bedroom | $474,017 |
| ZHVI, 2-bedroom | $577,727 |
| ZHVI, 3-bedroom | $782,588 |
| ZHVI, 4-bedroom | $997,973 |
| ZHVI, 5-bedroom | $1,238,321 |
Source: Zillow Economic Research public research data, observation month 2026-07. Zillow is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Compounding Estates.
Typical home value $780,294
Median rent $2,408/mo
Population 29,712
Region Pacific
Price & rent history
Home value $180,611 → $780,294 (2000-01–2026-08) · Asking rent $2,105 → $2,408 (2023-11–2026-08)
Source: Zillow ZHVI (home value), quarterly from 2000-01, monthly from 2016-09 to 2026-08; Zillow ZORI (asking rent), monthly from 2023-11 to 2026-08. Home value uses the left axis, rent the right; toggle either series, change the range, hover to read any point. Gaps in the source series are left as gaps - never interpolated.
ZIP markets in Atascadero
1 Census ZIP Code (ZCTAs) officially overlap Atascadero by land area · 1 data-eligible for subscores. Overlap is Census land-area share, not a population or address share. Each ZIP Code's overall Rental Investor ZIP Score, grade and canonical national rank are shown below (the two component signals, affordability and rental market, are separate percentiles). There is no city-scoped ZIP rank: city overlap isn't a ranking universe, so only the national rank is shown. These ZIP rankings sit in the ZIP universe only, never mixed with, and not directly comparable to, Atascadero's city ranking. Vintage: the Key metric column below is Census ACS 2020–2024 (5-year), the same survey release as the figures used above for Atascadero itself; a city and a ZIP Code are different geographies, so the same measure can still show a different number at each level.
1 of 1 overlapping ZIP Code area, scoredgrade, overall Rental Investor ZIP Score and national rank for each, on a separate model from this page's city scoreShow table
| ZIP Code | Overallgrade · natl rank | Tier · overlap | Affordabilitysignal · natl rank | Rental marketsignal · natl rank | Key metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93422Atascadero | C 44#11,703 nat | RankedPrimary | 36#15,380 of 20,132 · bottom 24% | 70#1,984 of 20,132 · top 10% | 3.0%Survey yield |
The honest read
Atascadero scores 28/100 overall (grade F): 15 for Cash Flow, 24 for Growth, and 70 for Stability, each a 0–100 score built from the factors in that category. The scenario above shows what a representative investor-entry purchase pencils out to at today's rates. Everything we can measure is in the table below, with its source.
Every factor, shown
The Overall score blends three category scores built from thirteen factors: Cash Flow (35%), Growth (35%), and Stability (30%). The tag on each percentile names the category a scored factor feeds; untagged rows are context, not scored. Each band chip restates that row's percentile in words. Every value carries its source and as-of date; a fallback source or imputed value is marked fallback. How the score works.
| Factor | Value | National percentile | Source · as-of | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense-adjusted yield | 1.6% | Bottom quartile21st percentile · Cash Flow | Zillow ZORI/ZHVI · 2026-08-31 | Annual rent divided by price, net of a modeled vacancy, tax, capex, and management allowance: the core of the Cash Flow category and what the score is actually computed from. The unadjusted gross yield is shown elsewhere on this page. |
| Price to income | 8.5x | Bottom 10%6th percentile · Cash Flow | Zillow + ACS income · 2026-08-31 | Home price over local median income. Lower is cheaper relative to what people earn. Part of the Cash Flow category. |
| Population growth | -0.2%/yr | Bottom quartile23rd percentile · Growth | Census PEP · Census PEP 2020→2025 (vintage 2025) + Census PEP 2015→2025 (vintages 2019+2025) | Census population trend for the place, capped at 4.5%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate): the heaviest factor in the Growth category. |
| Job growth | -0.2%/yr | Bottom quartile17th percentile · Growth | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2019→2025 (pre-COVID anchor; 2025 is an 11-month average) + BLS LAUS county annual 2015→2025 | County employment trend, capped at 4.0%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate). A Growth-category factor. |
| Income growth | 2.8%/yr | Bottom quartile15th percentile · Growth | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Local median-income trend. A Growth-category factor. |
| Rent growth fallback | 3.9%/yr | Below median49th percentile · Growth | Model cohort median (eligible county or state/population cohort); no city-specific observation. Published 2026-10-06 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year rent trend (the model's own weighting). A Growth-category factor. |
| Home-value growth | 4.4%/yr | Below median41st percentile · Growth | Zillow ZHVI · 3yr + 10yr to 2026-08-31 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year price trend (the model's own weighting). A small Growth-category factor. |
| Violent crime | 148 /100k/yr | Above median62nd percentile · Stability | FBI Crime Data Explorer · 2025 | Reported violent crimes per 100,000 residents a year (the FBI's monthly agency rates, times 12), from the municipal police department. Scored in Stability (weight 10 of its 30). City-level data cannot resolve within-neighborhood risk. |
| Property crime | 730 /100k/yr | Top quartile82nd percentile · Stability | FBI Crime Data Explorer · 2025 | Reported property crimes per 100,000 residents a year. Scored in Stability (weight 3 of its 30). |
| Unemployment | 4.4% | Below median37th percentile · Stability | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2025 (11-month average) | County unemployment rate. Lower is steadier, a Stability-category factor. |
| Rental vacancy | 1.6% | Top 10%94th percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25004 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Share of rentals empty. Lower means more pricing power. A Stability-category factor. |
| Property tax rate | 0.7% | Above median70th percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25103/B25077 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median tax over median value. A direct drag on cash flow, scored in the Stability category as carrying-cost burden. |
| Months of supply | 2.1 mo | Above median74th percentile · Stability | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Listings over sales pace. Under about 4 is a seller market, over 6 a buyer market. A Stability-category factor. |
| Days on market | 45 days | Below median42nd percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | How fast homes sell. Lower means more liquidity and an easier exit. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 99.4% | Above median53rd percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Sale price over asking. Above 100% means homes clear over ask. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Net domestic migration | +1.0/1k | Above median55th percentile | Census PEP (county) · PEP vintage 2025 | Net people moving in or out of the county, per 1,000 residents. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Building permits | 10.1/1k | Above median55th percentile | Census BPS (county) · BPS 2025 | New-construction permits per 1,000 homes. More means more supply coming. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Rent burden | 33% | Below median27th percentile | Census ACS B25071 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median rent as a share of income. Higher means less headroom for increases. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Median year built | 1983 | Above median64th percentile | Census ACS B25035 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Age of the housing stock. Older stock carries more capex. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Max drawdown | 38% | Bottom quartile19th percentile | Zillow ZHVI · 2026-08-31 | Worst peak-to-trough home-value decline on record. Shown for context, not scored. |
- * Job growth and unemployment are county-level (BLS LAUS, county FIPS 06079); large multi-county cities inherit their dominant county’s figures.
- Data flag: rentGrowth: ACS CAGR fallback. The score does not use a city figure for this factor: it uses the model cohort median shown in the factor table.
Where to go next from Atascadero
Every link below is this market's own data taken one step further: its neighbours in the ranking, the same numbers side by side, or the same numbers in a calculator you can change.
Nearby in the California rankings, and national look-alikes
- Morro Bay, CAGrade F · score 28/100 · yield 3.9% · $934,301 · #4,395 nationalZillow ZHVI $231k (2000) to $934k (2026), +304%
- Signal Hill, CAGrade F · score 28/100 · yield 4.6% · $698,818 · #4,403 nationalZillow ZHVI $196k (2000) to $699k (2026), +256%
- Norwalk, CAGrade F · score 28/100 · yield 4.3% · $756,744 · #4,418 nationalZillow ZHVI $159k (2000) to $757k (2026), +376%
- Thousand Oaks, CAGrade F · score 28/100 · yield 3.9% · $1,035,291 · #4,419 nationalZillow ZHVI $318k (2000) to $1.0M (2026), +226%
- Yonkers, NYGrade F · score 28/100 · yield 4.7% · $706,055 · #4,402 nationalZillow ZHVI $216k (2000) to $706k (2026), +227%
- Oak Park, ILGrade F · score 28/100 · yield 5.0% · $486,880 · #4,406 nationalZillow ZHVI $204k (2000) to $487k (2026), +139%
- Gloucester, MAGrade F · score 28/100 · yield 4.2% · $776,814 · #4,399 nationalZillow ZHVI $212k (2000) to $777k (2026), +266%
Compare Atascadero head to head
- Atascadero vs Morro Bay vs YonkersThe pre-filled matchup: nearest in-state rank and closest national grade.
- Atascadero vs Signal Hill, CAGrade F · yield 4.6%
- Atascadero vs Oak Park, ILGrade F · yield 5.0%
- Pick your own opponentAny of the 5,233 tracked cities.
Underwrite an Atascadero deal
- Cap rateOpens on Atascadero's own entry price and rent. Change either one.
- Cash flow & DSCRMonthly cash flow and DSCR, prefilled with this market's numbers.
- Mortgage paymentP&I on Atascadero's entry price at the assumptions shown above.
- All marketsCompare Atascadero against 4,812 ranked cities.
- California ZIP CodesEvery California ZIP Code area (Census ZCTAs), scored separately from the city rankings.
- Ranked listsSix lists, each with a disclosed entry rule.
Ranked lists: Highest yield · Cheapest vs. income · Rent covers the mortgage · Under $200k · Fastest-growing · Most stable
For learning, not advice. A market screen from public data - not a forecast, not underwriting, not a recommendation to buy anywhere.