Rental market · Southlake, TX · Incorporated city
Southlake, TX: average rent, home values, and rental yield
West South Central · Population 31,137
DatasetCity Market Score, model balanced4,812 of 5,233 tracked U.S. markets rankedgenerated 2026-10-06Latest source releases: Zillow ZHVI/ZORI 2026-08 · Census ACS 5-yr 2024 · Census PEP 2025 · Census BPS 2025 · BLS LAUS 2025 · Redfin 2026-05 · FBI CDE 2025How this is built
B55.2
#1,234 of 4,812 ranked markets
Overall Score 55.2 · stronger than 74% of ranked markets
Confidence 94/100 · 1 of 13 factors imputed
On the ranked lists: one of 1,079 most stable markets. List pages show the top 100.
Grade B: the biggest single drag is Cash Flow, 46.2 of 100 at 35% of the score, which is 45% of the distance to a perfect 100. See the arithmetic
Why this market does or does not qualify
Overall City Market Score rank #1,234 of 4,812. It does not enter the Buy & Hold shortlist under the baseline screen. Why rank and cash flow can disagree
Investor-entry estimate$973,418
Modeled rent$5,894/mo
20% down · base cash flow−$1,820/mo
25% down · rent stress to base−$1,960/mo to −$1,500/mo
Hold Coverage · 20% / 25%0.65 / 0.69
Conditional price ceiling · 25%$659,205
Required rent at entry estimate$8,703/mo
Limiting requirementCash flow is not positive after reserves at 25% down
Price × rent decision grid · 25% down
Change the two inputs that usually decide the deal. Green cells clear the three financial requirements before the separate quality and data gates.
| Monthly cash flow / Hold Coverage | 10% below entry$876,076 | Entry estimate$973,418 | 10% above entry$1,070,760 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% higher rent$6,483/mo | −$440/moHC 0.90 · does not clear | −$1,040/moHC 0.78 · does not clear | −$1,650/moHC 0.69 · does not clear |
| Modeled rent$5,894/mo | −$890/moHC 0.80 · does not clear | −$1,500/moHC 0.69 · does not clear | −$2,110/moHC 0.61 · does not clear |
| 10% lower rent$5,304/mo | −$1,350/moHC 0.69 · does not clear | −$1,960/moHC 0.60 · does not clear | −$2,560/moHC 0.52 · does not clear |
Expense waterfall · base case
Monthly, rounded to $10. NOI excludes CapEx and debt service.
- Scheduled rent+$5,890/mo
- Vacancy allowance−$290/mo
- Management−$450/mo
- Maintenance−$290/mo
- Property tax−$800/mo
- Insurance allowance−$410/mo
- NOI+$3,650/mo
- CapEx reserve−$290/mo
- Debt service−$4,860/mo
- Cash flow−$1,500/mo
Base−$1,500/mo · HC 0.69Rent stress−$1,960/mo · rent −10%Insurance-expense stress−$2,310/mo · allowance 1.5%
Two supported strengths
Stability 73/100 and Growth 52/100.
Weakest measured signal
Cash Flow is the weakest category at 46/100.
Census ranges, not measurements. The Census Bureau publishes this city's median real-estate tax only as "$10,000 or more" (ACS table B25103), carried as the code $10,001, so the property tax rate built on it is a bound. This Buy & Hold verdict, the decision grid and the waterfall are computed at that code, so read every cash-flow figure here as a ceiling: the true figure is lower.
Primary evidenced risk: income growth is the weakest measured factor (4th national percentile). Data caveat: price is Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile); rent is ZORI asking rent and is not bedroom- or property-matched. Insurance is a 0.5% annual allowance, not a quote.
Scenario buy-hold-v1-2026-09-19: 7% fixed financing for 30 years; 20% and 25% down; 5% vacancy; 8% management on collected rent; 5% maintenance and 5% CapEx on scheduled rent; measured local property tax; 3% closing costs. Qualification also requires positive cash flow, Hold Coverage at least 1.10, nonnegative cash flow after 10% lower rent, and the existing quality and data gates.
Property verification checklist
- Confirm achievable rent with bedroom-matched comps, current listings, and any existing lease.
- Use the parcel’s actual tax bill and reassessment rules.
- Obtain a landlord insurance quote, including wind, flood, or named-storm coverage where relevant.
- Inspect roof, structure, mechanicals, deferred maintenance, and immediate capital needs.
- Verify utilities, HOA, licensing, inspection, registration, and local rental rules.
- Replace the modeled loan with a current lender quote, points, closing costs, and reserve requirements.
Why this grade
Overall 55.2 is a weighted geometric mean of the three category scores. Because they are multiplied rather than averaged, their distances from a perfect 100 combine as an exact identity, and each category's share of that distance is the arithmetic below, not an estimate. Cash Flow carries 45% of it, which is what makes it the binding constraint on this grade.
Cash Flow · 35% weight
46.2 / 100
45% of the shortfall
Growth · 35% weight
52.1 / 100
38% of the shortfall
Stability · 30% weight
72.5 / 100
16% of the shortfall
Inside Cash Flow, the shortfall splits over the factors the model scored here, exactly, in proportion to their published weights. The largest component is expense-adjusted yield (weight 22 of the category's 35, 56th national percentile, 51% of the category's own shortfall); next is price to income (weight 13 of the category's 35, 30th national percentile, 49% of the category's own shortfall).
What this is not. It is not a claim that a different value on any one factor would produce a different score or a different grade. Every factor is scored as a national percentile and the grade is a percentile cut against the other 4,812 ranked markets, so this market's position moves only relative to all of them, never on its own. No factor was dropped for this market. 1 of the 13 factor was imputed (rent growth): the model had no city input of the kind it scores, so it used a reference median instead of a measurement (the same county, or the same state and population band; a national median for a yield cost input), and the factor table marks it as a fallback.
How Southlake ranks nationally
Each row places Southlake among all 4,812 ranked U.S. markets: the marker is this city, the centre tick is the national median, and the bar runs from one to the other. Further right is better for an investor; inverted measures (crime, vacancy, price-to-income) are already flipped.
Overall Scorethe flagship rank
55.274th percentile
Cash Flowyield & affordability
4646th percentile
Growthpopulation, jobs, income
5254th percentile
Stabilitycrime, vacancy, unemployment
7393rd percentile
Expense-adjusted yield3.0% net of costs, scored at a Census open-ended code
5656th percentile
Affordabilityprice-to-income 5.3×, scored at a Census open-ended code
30more affordable than 30%
Violent crime44 /100k/yr
97safer than 97%
Rental vacancy4.9% vacant
53tighter than 53%
Population growth0.2%/yr (capped)
4343rd percentile
Job growth2.0%/yr (capped)
8989th percentile
What a deal looks like here
A market-level buy-box for Southlake, built from this market's own numbers: the investor-entry price, its rent, and local carrying costs. The market grade is a quality screen; the deal verdict below is this financing scenario only. An illustrative scenario, not a listing.
Target buy price
$973,418
Expected rent
$5,894 /mo
Rent-to-price
0.61%
Cap rate
4.5%
Cash-on-cash
-6.6% at 25% dn
NOI-based DSCR
0.75
Hold Coverage
0.69 after CapEx reserve
Does not meet screen. At 25% down, named scenarios span −$1,960 to −$1,500/mo after reserves (10% lower-rent stress to base case). This range is not a confidence interval.
Buy target = Zillow Bottom-Tier ZHVI (5th–35th percentile) $973,418; typical home value $1,317,797. Rent = Zillow ZORI typical asking rent. Census ranges, not measurements: The Census Bureau publishes this city's median real-estate tax only as "$10,000 or more" (ACS table B25103), carried as the code $10,001, so the property tax rate built on it is a bound. So read every cash-flow figure on this card as a ceiling: the true figure is lower. Assumptions: 25% down, 7% / 30-yr, 5% vacancy, 8% management on collected rent, 5% maintenance, 5% CapEx reserve excluded from NOI and subtracted from cash flow, 0.5% insurance, 0.99% property tax. Illustrative market-level scenario: not a listing, appraisal, recommendation, or underwriting decision. Zillow price and rent as of 2026-08-31; dataset generated 2026-10-06.
Market Negotiation Leverage
Some seller leverage (40th percentile among 6,196 cities with Redfin coverage)
Equal-weight composite of three Redfin signals’ national percentiles (days on market 19, months of supply 2.6, sale-to-list 99.0%), direction-adjusted so a higher percentile always means more room for a buyer to negotiate. This is a cross-sectional snapshot against every other tracked city today, not a seasonal or historical baseline for this specific city (no multi-year time series is committed for this data). Not a prediction of what any specific seller will accept. Source: Redfin Data Center. See how this is calculated.
Measured market data
Measured observations for Southlake, shown as context beside the market score (none of it feeds the score), and the model weights are unchanged. These are different measurements from the Census figures in the factor table: the ACS median value is what owners report in a 5-year survey, while ZHVI is a monthly index of typical value; ACS median gross rent is what sitting tenants pay including utilities, while ZORI indexes asking rent on newly listed units. Neither corrects the other. Monthly series, revised in recent months, observed 2026-07, not live.
20 measured Zillow figurestypical value $1,321,458 · asking rent $6,044/mo · measured gross yield 5.49% · observed 2026-07Show table
| Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, mid tier) | $1,321,458 |
|---|---|
| ZHVI bottom tier (5th–35th pct) | $973,752 |
| ZHVI top tier (65th–95th pct) | $2,010,334 |
| ZHVI, single-family only | $1,330,650 |
| Zillow asking-rent index (ZORI) | $6,044/mo |
| Measured gross yield (ZORI × 12 ÷ ZHVI) | 5.49% |
| Market heat index | 50 |
| Median days to pending | 16 |
| Share of listings with a price cut | 27.0% |
| Median sale-to-list ratio | 99.1% |
| For-sale inventory | 163 |
| New listings | 49 |
| Median list price | $2,031,333 |
| Median sale price | $1,299,900 |
| Measured 3-yr value growth | 3.52%/yr |
| Measured 5-yr value growth | 7.14%/yr |
| ZHVI, 2-bedroom | $555,350 |
| ZHVI, 3-bedroom | $951,078 |
| ZHVI, 4-bedroom | $1,215,840 |
| ZHVI, 5-bedroom | $1,720,256 |
Source: Zillow Economic Research public research data, observation month 2026-07. Zillow is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Compounding Estates.
Typical home value $1,317,797
Median rent $5,894/mo
Population 31,137
Region West South Central
Price & rent history
Home value $428,815 → $1,317,797 (2000-01–2026-08)
Asking rent: only 6 data points (2026-03 → 2026-08) - too little history to chart honestly.
Source: Zillow ZHVI (home value), quarterly from 2000-01, monthly from 2016-09 to 2026-08. Change the range or hover to read any point. Gaps in the source series are left as gaps - never interpolated.
ZIP markets in Southlake
4 Census ZIP Codes (ZCTAs) officially overlap Southlake by land area · 3 data-eligible for subscores. Overlap is Census land-area share, not a population or address share. Each ZIP Code's overall Rental Investor ZIP Score, grade and canonical national rank are shown below (the two component signals, affordability and rental market, are separate percentiles). There is no city-scoped ZIP rank: city overlap isn't a ranking universe, so only the national rank is shown. These ZIP rankings sit in the ZIP universe only, never mixed with, and not directly comparable to, Southlake's city ranking. Vintage: the Key metric column below is Census ACS 2020–2024 (5-year), the same survey release as the figures used above for Southlake itself; a city and a ZIP Code are different geographies, so the same measure can still show a different number at each level.
4 of 4 overlapping ZIP Code areas, scoredgrade, overall Rental Investor ZIP Score and national rank for each, on a separate model from this page's city scoreShow table
| ZIP Code | Overallgrade · natl rank | Tier · overlap | Affordabilitysignal · natl rank | Rental marketsignal · natl rank | Key metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76092Southlake | — | ProfilePrimary | — | — | ≥4.1%Survey yield |
| 76248Keller | B 64#2,033 nat | Ranked0.2% overlap | 23#18,924 of 20,132 · bottom 6% | 48#10,627 of 20,132 · bottom 47% | 4.5%Survey yield |
| 76051Grapevine | A 67#1,051 nat | Ranked0.1% overlap | 27#18,118 of 20,132 · bottom 10% | 71#1,711 of 20,132 · top 8% | 4.6%Survey yield |
| 76262Northlake | A 69#678 nat | Ranked0.0% overlap | 17#19,723 of 20,132 · bottom 2% | 46#11,509 of 20,132 · bottom 43% | 3.8%Survey yield |
The honest read
Southlake scores 55/100 overall (grade B): 46 for Cash Flow, 52 for Growth, and 73 for Stability, each a 0–100 score built from the factors in that category. The scenario above shows what a representative investor-entry purchase pencils out to at today's rates. Everything we can measure is in the table below, with its source.
Every factor, shown
The Overall score blends three category scores built from thirteen factors: Cash Flow (35%), Growth (35%), and Stability (30%). The tag on each percentile names the category a scored factor feeds; untagged rows are context, not scored. Each band chip restates that row's percentile in words. Every value carries its source and as-of date; a fallback source or imputed value is marked fallback. How the score works.
| Factor | Value | National percentile | Source · as-of | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense-adjusted yield open-ended input | 3.0% | Above median56th percentile · Cash Flow | Zillow ZORI/ZHVI · 2026-08-31 | Annual rent divided by price, net of a modeled vacancy, tax, capex, and management allowance: the core of the Cash Flow category and what the score is actually computed from. The unadjusted gross yield is shown elsewhere on this page. The model scored this figure at the Census code for the median real-estate tax only as $10,000 or more. The true figure is at most what the published boundary gives. |
| Price to income open-ended input | 5.3x | Below median30th percentile · Cash Flow | Zillow + ACS income · 2026-08-31 | Home price over local median income. Lower is cheaper relative to what people earn. Part of the Cash Flow category. The model scored this figure at the Census code for the median household income only as $250,000 or more. The true figure is at most what the published boundary gives. |
| Population growth | 0.2%/yr | Below median43rd percentile · Growth | Census PEP · Census PEP 2020→2025 (vintage 2025) + Census PEP 2015→2025 (vintages 2019+2025) | Census population trend for the place, capped at 4.5%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate): the heaviest factor in the Growth category. |
| Job growth | 2.0%/yr | Top quartile89th percentile · Growth | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2019→2025 (pre-COVID anchor; 2025 is an 11-month average) + BLS LAUS county annual 2015→2025 | County employment trend, capped at 4.0%/yr before scoring (diminishing returns above that rate). A Growth-category factor. |
| Income growth open-ended input | 0.8%/yr | Bottom 10%4th percentile · Growth | Census ACS · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Local median-income trend. A Growth-category factor. The model scored this figure at the Census code for the median household income (ACS 2020–2024) only as $250,000 or more. The true figure is at least what the published boundary gives. |
| Rent growth fallback | 2.4%/yr | Bottom quartile17th percentile · Growth | Model cohort median (eligible county or state/population cohort); no city-specific observation. Published 2026-10-06 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year rent trend (the model's own weighting). A Growth-category factor. |
| Home-value growth | 5.7%/yr | Top quartile77th percentile · Growth | Zillow ZHVI · 3yr + 10yr to 2026-08-31 | A 40/60 blend of 3-year and 10-year price trend (the model's own weighting). A small Growth-category factor. |
| Violent crime | 44 /100k/yr | Top 10%97th percentile · Stability | FBI Crime Data Explorer · 2025 | Reported violent crimes per 100,000 residents a year (the FBI's monthly agency rates, times 12), from the municipal police department. Scored in Stability (weight 10 of its 30). City-level data cannot resolve within-neighborhood risk. |
| Property crime | 640 /100k/yr | Top quartile89th percentile · Stability | FBI Crime Data Explorer · 2025 | Reported property crimes per 100,000 residents a year. Scored in Stability (weight 3 of its 30). |
| Unemployment | 3.9% | Above median61st percentile · Stability | BLS LAUS (county) · BLS LAUS county annual 2025 (11-month average) | County unemployment rate. Lower is steadier, a Stability-category factor. |
| Rental vacancy | 4.9% | Above median53rd percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25004 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Share of rentals empty. Lower means more pricing power. A Stability-category factor. |
| Property tax rate open-ended input | 1.0% | Above median50th percentile · Stability | Census ACS B25103/B25077 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median tax over median value. A direct drag on cash flow, scored in the Stability category as carrying-cost burden. The model scored this figure at the Census code for the median real-estate tax only as $10,000 or more. The true figure is at least what the published boundary gives. |
| Months of supply | 2.6 mo | Above median60th percentile · Stability | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Listings over sales pace. Under about 4 is a seller market, over 6 a buyer market. A Stability-category factor. |
| Days on market | 19 days | Top quartile81st percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | How fast homes sell. Lower means more liquidity and an easier exit. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 99.0% | Below median46th percentile | Redfin Data Center · 2026-05-01 | Sale price over asking. Above 100% means homes clear over ask. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Net domestic migration | -3.1/1k | Below median33rd percentile | Census PEP (county) · PEP vintage 2025 | Net people moving in or out of the county, per 1,000 residents. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Building permits | 18.7/1k | Below median33rd percentile | Census BPS (county) · BPS 2025 | New-construction permits per 1,000 homes. More means more supply coming. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Rent burden | 28% | Above median70th percentile | Census ACS B25071 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Median rent as a share of income. Higher means less headroom for increases. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Median year built | 1997 | Top quartile86th percentile | Census ACS B25035 · ACS 5-yr 2020-2024 | Age of the housing stock. Older stock carries more capex. Shown for context, not scored. |
| Max drawdown | 6% | Top quartile88th percentile | Zillow ZHVI · 2026-08-31 | Worst peak-to-trough home-value decline on record. Shown for context, not scored. |
- * Job growth and unemployment are county-level (BLS LAUS, county FIPS 48439); large multi-county cities inherit their dominant county’s figures.
- The Census Bureau publishes this city's median gross rent only as "$3,500 or more" (ACS table B25064): an open-ended range, not an estimate, which the data carries as the code $3,501.
- The Census Bureau publishes this city's median household income only as "$250,000 or more" (ACS table B19013): an open-ended range, not an estimate, which the data carries as the code $250,001. Figures built on it are bounds: price to income at most 5.3x; income growth at least 0.7% a year. The City Market Score uses the code as stored, so its price to income and income growth were scored at the code, not at a measured figure.
- The Census Bureau publishes this city's median real-estate tax only as "$10,000 or more" (ACS table B25103): an open-ended range, not an estimate, which the data carries as the code $10,001. Figures built on it are bounds: property tax rate at least 0.98%. The City Market Score uses the code as stored, so its property tax rate was scored at the code, not at a measured figure.
- Data flag: rentGrowth: ACS CAGR fallback. The score does not use a city figure for this factor: it uses the model cohort median shown in the factor table.
Where to go next from Southlake
Every link below is this market's own data taken one step further: its neighbours in the ranking, the same numbers side by side, or the same numbers in a calculator you can change.
Nearby in the Texas rankings, and national look-alikes
- New Braunfels, TXGrade B · score 55/100 · yield 5.4% · $346,475 · #1,199 nationalZillow ZHVI $210k (2009) to $346k (2026), +65%
- Mission, TXGrade B · score 55/100 · yield 7.4% · $219,583 · #1,208 nationalZillow ZHVI $110k (2007) to $220k (2026), +99%
- Freeport, TXGrade B · score 55/100 · yield 9.3% · $163,262 · #1,239 nationalZillow ZHVI $77k (2000) to $163k (2026), +113%
- Celina, TXGrade B · score 55/100 · yield 4.8% · $511,903 · #1,245 nationalZillow ZHVI $186k (2000) to $512k (2026), +175%
- Broomfield, COGrade B · score 55/100 · yield 4.1% · $620,899 · #1,235 nationalZillow ZHVI $260k (2001) to $621k (2026), +138%
- Florence, ALGrade B · score 55/100 · yield 6.6% · $216,557 · #1,229 nationalZillow ZHVI $106k (2010) to $217k (2026), +105%
- Euclid, OHGrade B · score 55/100 · yield 9.3% · $151,177 · #1,231 nationalZillow ZHVI $77k (2000) to $151k (2026), +97%
Compare Southlake head to head
- Southlake vs New Braunfels vs BroomfieldThe pre-filled matchup: nearest in-state rank and closest national grade.
- Southlake vs Mission, TXGrade B · yield 7.4%
- Southlake vs Florence, ALGrade B · yield 6.6%
- Pick your own opponentAny of the 5,233 tracked cities.
Underwrite a Southlake deal
- Cap rateOpens on Southlake's own entry price and rent. Change either one.
- Cash flow & DSCRMonthly cash flow and DSCR, prefilled with this market's numbers.
- Mortgage paymentP&I on Southlake's entry price at the assumptions shown above.
- All marketsCompare Southlake against 4,812 ranked cities.
- Texas ZIP CodesEvery Texas ZIP Code area (Census ZCTAs), scored separately from the city rankings.
- Ranked listsSix lists, each with a disclosed entry rule.
Ranked lists: Highest yield · Cheapest vs. income · Rent covers the mortgage · Under $200k · Fastest-growing · Most stable
For learning, not advice. A market screen from public data - not a forecast, not underwriting, not a recommendation to buy anywhere.